April 29, 2021

How to Avoid False Positives and False Negatives when Diagnosing Adult ADHD?

A recent paper by Margaret Sibley and colleagues addresses a key issue in the diagnosis of adult ADHD. Is it sufficient to only collect data from the patient being diagnosed or are informants useful or, perhaps, essential, for diagnosing ADHD in adults? Dr. Sibley presented a systematic review of twelve studies that prospectively followed ADHD children into adulthood. Each of these studies asked a simple question: What fraction of ADHD youth continued to have ADHD in adulthood. Surprisingly, the estimates of ADHD's persistence ranged from a low of4% to a high of 77%. They found two study features that accounted for much of this wide range. The first was the nature of the informant; did the study rely only on the patient's report, or were other informants consulted. The second was the use of a strict diagnostic threshold of six symptoms. When they limited the analysis to studies that used informants and eliminated the six symptom threshold, the range of estimates was much narrower, 40% to 77%. From studies that computed multiple measures of persistence using different criteria, the authors concluded: "(1) requiring impairment to be present for diagnosis reduced persistence rates; (2) a norm-based symptom threshold led to higher persistence than a strict six-symptom DSM-based symptom count criterion; and (3) informant reports tended to show a higher number of symptoms than self-reports." These data have clear implications for what clinicians can do to avoid false positive and false negative diagnoses when diagnosing adult ADHD. It is reassuring that the self-reports of ADHD patients tend to underestimate the number and severity of ADHD symptoms. This means that your patients are not typically exaggerating their symptoms. Put differently, self-reports will not lead you to over-diagnose adult ADHD. Instead, reliance on self-reports can lead to false-negative diagnoses, i.e., concluding that someone does not have ADHD when, in fact, they do. You can avoid false negatives by doing a thorough assessment, which is facilitated by some tools available at www. ADHD in adults. Command described in CME videos there. If you think a patient might have ADHD but are not certain, it would be helpful to collect data from an informant, i.e., someone who knows the patient well such as a spouse, partner, roommate, or parent. You can collect such data by sending home a rating scale or by having the patient bring an informant to a subsequent visit. Dr. Sibley's paper also shows that you can avoid false-negative diagnoses by using a lower symptom threshold than what is required in the diagnostic manual. The new DSM 5 lowered the symptom threshold for adults from six to five. Can you go lower? Yes, but it is essential to show that these symptoms lead to clear impairments in living. Importantly, this symptom threshold refers to the number of symptoms documented in adulthood, not to the number of symptoms retrospectively reported in childhood. To be diagnosed with ADHD in adulthood, one must document that the patient had at least six impairing symptoms of ADHD before the age of 12.

Sibley, M. H., Mitchell, J. T. & Becker, S. P. (2016). Method ofadult diagnosis influences estimated persistence of childhood ADHD: asystematic review of longitudinal studies. Lancet Psychiatry3,1157-1165.

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Meta-analysis Finds Tenuous Links Between ADHD and Thyroid Hormone Dysregulation

The Background:

Meta-analyses have previously suggested a link between maternal thyroid dysfunction and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) in children, though some studies report no significant difference. Overweight and obesity are more common in children and adolescents with NDDs. Hypothyroidism is often associated with obesity, which may result from reduced energy expenditure or disrupted hormone signaling affecting growth and appetite. These hormone-related parameters could potentially serve as biomarkers for NDDs; however, research findings on these indicators vary. 

The Study:

A Chinese research group recently released a meta-analysis examining the relationship between neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) and hormone levels – including thyroid, growth, and appetite hormones – in children and adolescents.  

The analysis included peer-reviewed studies that compared hormone levels – such as thyroid hormones (FT3, FT4, TT3, TT4, TSH, TPO-Ab, or TG-Ab), growth hormones (IGF-1 or IGFBP-3), and appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, or adiponectin) – in children and adolescents with NDDs like ADHD, against matched healthy controls. To be included, NDD cases had to be first-diagnosis and medication-free, or have stopped medication before testing. Hormone measurements needed to come from blood, urine, or cerebrospinal fluid samples, and all studies were required to provide both means and standard deviations for these measurements. 

Meta-analysis of nine studies encompassing over 5,700 participants reported a medium effect size increase in free triiodothyronine (FT3) in children and adolescents with ADHD relative to healthy controls. There was no indication of publication bias, but variation between individual study outcomes (heterogeneity) was very high. Further analysis showed FT3 was only significantly elevated in the predominantly inattentive form of ADHD (three studies), again with medium effect size, but not in the hyperactive/impulsive and combined forms

Meta-analysis of two studies combining more than 4,800 participants found a small effect size increase in thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab) in children and adolescents with ADHD relative to healthy controls. In this case, the two studies had consistent results. Because only two studies were involved, there was no way to evaluate publication bias. 

The remaining thyroid hormone meta-analyses, involving 6 to 18 studies and over 5,000 participants in each instance, found no significant differences in levels between children and adolescents with ADHD and healthy controls

Meta-analyses of six studies with 317 participants and two studies with 192 participants found no significant differences in growth hormone levels between children and adolescents with ADHD and healthy controls. 

Finally, meta-analyses of nine studies with 333 participants, five studies with 311 participants, and three studies with 143 participants found no significant differences in appetite-related hormone levels between children and adolescents with ADHD and healthy controls. 

The Conclusion:

The team concluded that FT3 and TPO-Ab might be useful biomarkers for predicting ADHD in youth. However, since FT3 was only linked to inattentive ADHD, and TPO-Ab’s evidence came from just two studies with small effects, this conclusion may overstate the meta-analysis results. 

Our Take-Away:

Overall, this meta-analysis found only limited evidence that hormone differences are linked to ADHD. One thyroid hormone (FT3) was higher in children with ADHD—mainly in the inattentive presentation—but the findings varied widely across studies. Another marker, TPO-Ab, showed a small increase, but this came from only two studies, making the result less certain. For all other thyroid, growth, and appetite-related hormones, the researchers found no meaningful differences between children with ADHD and those without. While FT3 and TPO-Ab may be worth exploring in future research, the current evidence is not strong enough to consider them reliable biomarkers.

 

December 15, 2025

Meta-analysis Finds Assisted Reproductive Techniques Associated with Offspring ADHD

Meta-analysis Finds Assisted Reproductive Techniques Associated with Offspring ADHD 

Background:

Recent progress in reproductive medicine has increased the number of children conceived via assisted reproductive techniques (ART). These include: 

  • In vitro fertilization (IVF), in which eggs are retrieved from the ovaries and fertilized with sperm in a laboratory; embryos are then transferred into the uterus.  
  • Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), where a single sperm is injected directly into an egg. 
  • Intrauterine insemination (IUI), in which sperm is placed directly into the uterus around the time of ovulation. This is often combined with ovulation-inducing (OI) medications. 

Although ART helps with infertility, there are concerns about its long-term effects on offspring, especially regarding neurodevelopment. Factors such as hormonal treatments, gamete manipulation, altered embryonic environments, as well as parental age and infertility, may influence brain development and raise the risk of neurodevelopmental and mental health disorders. 

With previous studies finding conflicting results on a possible association between ART and increased risk of mental health disorders, an Indian research team has just published a new meta-analysis exploring this topic. 

The Study:

Studies were eligible if they were observational (cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional), reported confounder-adjusted effect sizes for ADHD, and were published in English in peer-reviewed journals. 

A meta-analysis of eight studies encompassing nearly twelve million individuals indicated a 7% higher prevalence of ADHD in offspring conceived via IVF/ICSI compared to those conceived naturally. The heterogeneity among studies was minimal, and no evidence of publication bias was observed. 

The study’s 95% confidence interval ranged from 4% to 10%. Further analysis of five studies comprising almost nine million participants that distinguished outcomes by sex revealed that the increase in ADHD risk among female offspring was not statistically significant. In contrast, the elevated risk in male offspring persisted, though it was marginally significant, with the lower bound of the confidence limit at only 1%. 

Results:

A meta-analysis of three studies (1.4 million participants) found a 13% higher rate of ADHD in children conceived via ovulation induction/intrauterine insemination (OI/IUI) compared to natural conception. The effect size, though doubled, remains small. Minimal heterogeneity and no publication bias were observed. 

The team concluded, “The review found a small but statistically significant moderate certainty evidence of an increased risk of ADHD in those conceived through ART, compared to spontaneous conception. The magnitude of observed risk is small and is reassuring for parents and clinicians.” 

Our Take-Away:

Overall, the meta-analysis points to a small, but measurable increase in ADHD diagnoses among children conceived through ART, but the effect sizes are modest and supported by moderate-certainty evidence. And we must always keep in mind that the researchers who wrote the original articles could not correct for all possible confounds.  These findings suggest that while reproductive technologies may introduce slight variation in neurodevelopmental outcomes, the effects are small and uncertain. For families and clinicians, the results are generally reassuring: ART remains a safe and effective avenue to parenthood, and the results of this study should not be viewed as a prohibitive concern. Thoughtful developmental monitoring and open, evidence-based counseling can help ensure that ART-conceived children receive support that caters to their individual needs.

 

December 12, 2025

Taiwan Nationwide Population Study Concludes Dopaminergic ADHD Medications Reduce Risk of Myopia

The Background:

Myopia is a growing global health concern linked to conditions like macular degeneration, glaucoma, and retinal detachment. Its prevalence has surged in recent decades; by 2050, an estimated 5 billion people will have myopia. The increase is especially marked in Asia – a survey in Taiwan reports that 84% of students aged 15 to 18 are myopic, with 24% severely affected. 

Dopamine is an important neurotransmitter in the retina, involved in eye development, visual signaling, and refractive changes. The dopamine hypothesis, suggesting that retinal dopamine release helps prevent myopia, has emerged as a leading theory of myopia control. 

Most studies show ADHD is highly heritable, often involving dopamine system genes. ADHD is strongly associated with dopaminergic abnormalities, especially in dopamine transporter function and release dynamics. 

Medications for ADHD, like methylphenidate, atomoxetine, and clonidine, help regulate dopamine to reduce symptoms.  

The Study:

Given dopamine’s critical involvement in both ADHD and myopia, a Taiwanese research team hypothesized that medications for ADHD that influence dopaminergic pathways may have a significant effect on myopia risk.  

To evaluate this hypothesis, the team conducted a nationwide cohort study using data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI) program, which covers 99% of the nation’s 23 million residents and provides access to comprehensive eye care and screenings. Taiwan requires visual acuity screenings beginning at age four, with annual examinations for school-aged children to promote the early detection of visual anomalies such as myopia.  

Furthermore, ADHD medication and diagnosis are tracked through compulsory diagnostic codes. This permits an accurate assessment of the effects of dopaminergic medications on myopia risk. 

Propensity score allocation using a multivariable logistic regression model was applied to reduce bias from confounding influences, pairing cohorts based on similar scores. 

The Results: 

Comparing 133,945 individuals with ADHD with an equal number without ADHD, untreated ADHD was associated with a 22% greater risk of myopia.  

However, after adjusting for covariates (gender, age, insured premium, comorbidities, location, and urbanization level), the ADHD cohort receiving medication treatment showed a 39% decreased risk of myopia relative to the untreated ADHD cohort. 

Narrowing this further to the ADHD cohort receiving dopaminergic medications reduced the risk of myopia by more than half (52%) relative to the untreated ADHD cohort.  

Treatment with two dopaminergic medications reduced the risk by well over two-thirds (72%) relative to the untreated ADHD cohort. 

There were no significant differences between methylphenidate, atomoxetine, and clonidine. Each reduced risk by about 50%. 

The team did not directly compare the ADHD cohort receiving dopaminergic medications with the non-ADHD cohort. But if there were 122 cases of myopia in the ADHD cohort for every 100 cases in the non-ADHD cohort, and dopaminergic medications halved the cases in the ADHD cohort to about 60, that would represent a roughly 40% reduction in myopia risk relative to the non-ADHD cohort. 

The team concluded, “our research indicates that pharmacologically treated ADHD children have a reduced risk of myopia. Conversely, untreated ADHD children are at a heightened risk relative to those without ADHD. Moreover, the cumulative effects of ADHD medications were found to notably decrease myopia incidence, emphasizing the protective influence of dopaminergic modulation in these interventions.” 

The Take-Away:

Children with untreated ADHD are more likely to develop myopia, but those receiving dopaminergic medications had a substantially lower risk. The findings suggest that ADHD medications may help protect against myopia by boosting dopamine signaling. More research is needed before firmly drawing this conclusion, but this research could open the door to new approaches for preventing myopia in at-risk children.

December 8, 2025